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Prediction for CME (2021-11-01T18:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-11-01T18:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18164/-1
CME Note: This CME is seen to the southwest in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3 coronagraphs. The source of this CME appears to be a C1.3 class flare from Active Region 12887 (S28W58) and an accompanying eruption seen in AIA 193 and 171. The shock caused most probably by the combined arrival of this CME and the 2021-11-02T02:48Z CME is characterized by the dramatic increase in B_tot, first to 14 nT at 2021-11-03T19:55Z and then to the maximum of 24 nT at 21:07Z, with corresponding increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (to speeds around 700 km/s, with a maximum of 809 km/s). There is a clear flux rope, accompanied by a drop in ion temperature the next morning. The arrival of this combined CME front was marked by an associated magnetopause crossing and a strong geomagnetic storm, with 5 synoptic periods of Kp above 6 (three of them with Kp=7).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-11-03T19:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-11-03T16:48Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18168/1
Model Inputs:
2021-11-01T18:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=30.0, Lat.=-27.0, Speed=545.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T00:43Z
2021-11-01T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=41.0, Lat.=-17.0, Speed=829.0, HalfAngle=47.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T01:49Z
2021-11-02T02:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=15.0, Speed=1335.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T04:57Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-11-03T16:48Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =31.2 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.2
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-03T08:03Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-03T11:53Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-04T01:37Z
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-03T21:14Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_004300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 27.93 hour(s)
Difference: 2.58 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2021-11-02T15:27Z

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